AFL Round 23 Betting Preview 2017
AFL Betting Preview – Round 23
The last round of the AFL season is here and there’s a few interesting matches. The round kicks off with the Bulldogs in desperate need of a win against the Hawks to make finals. On Saturday afternoon, the Demons will aim to secure a finals spot for the first time since 2006 against the Magpies. On the flipside, the Lions and Kangaroos will battle for the spoon in Brisbane. On Saturday night, the Giants face the Cats in the match of the round. On Sunday, all three matches have finals implications. The Bombers must beat the Dockers, but the Eagles and Saints will be hoping they slip up for the last spot in the top eight.
Bet for Free previews the two best games of AFL Round 23, 2017 and we provide our best bets for each game.
Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants
The Cats host the Giants in a potential finals preview in Round 23. The two sides drew in Round 15 so Bet for Free is expecting another close match. One of the storylines in this match is the return of Steve J to the Cattery.
Geelong are coming off two tough wins over the Magpies and Tigers. They sit third on the ladder and they’ll be aiming to finish 2nd for a home final. They have a good record against the Giants and they’ll have Tom Hawkins back this week.
The GWS Giants are on a four match winning streak and they can still finish first on the ladder with a win. They’ve never won in Geelong but they came within 10 points in the last match at Kardina Park.
As mentioned, Tom Hawkins is back from suspension and Wylie Buzza will most likely make way.
The Giants are looking injury free this week and they’ll be happy to see Jeremy Cameron get through a game without an injury.
Last 3 meetings:
Round 15, 2017
GWS drew with Geelong 68-68
Round 11, 2016
Geelong defeats GWS 98-88
Round 2, 2016
GWS defeats Geelong 89-76
The last three meetings have been close matches as they matchup well together. They drew in Round 15 and in Round 11 last season at this venue, the Cats won by just 10 points. The Cats have won the last two by 1-39 and the Giants are 3-1 against the 1-39 margin.
Both teams average 14 goals per game this season and the total points reached 186 in the last meeting at the venue. We’re expecting a similar result.
This should be a very close match but in the end, the Cats have the advantage at home. They get Hawkins back and Dangerfield is firing before the finals. This should be a 1-39 margin for the Cats.
Best bet: Cats WIN ($1.81)
Value bet: Cats 1-39 ($2.30)
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
The Tigers face the Saints at the MCG on Sunday and St Kilda could be playing for finals. They smashed the Tigers by 67 points in Round 16 and they’ll be aiming for the same in Round 23.
The Tigers are coming off a 104 point win over the Dockers and they were incredibly accurate (25 goals, 5 behinds). The Saints comfortably beat the Kangaroos last week and their final hopes rest on this one.
The Tigers have one of the lowest injury lists in the AFL. Josh Caddy is the only major player sidelined and he should return for the finals.
Sam Gilbert is out and Jake Carlisle has a sore back from last week.
Last 3 meetings:
Round 16, 2017
St Kilda defeats Richmond 138-71
Round 22, 2016
Richmond defeated by St Kilda 46-55
Round 16, 2015
St Kilda defeated by Richmond 73-89
The Saints have won the last two but the 67 point margin in Round 16 probably won’t happen in this match. Since 2014, the 1-39 margin is 3-2 so we’re expecting a closer match at the MCG.
The total points reached just 101 points in the last meeting at the MCG in 2016. But after last week, we’re expecting more points this time around. The Tigers kicked 25 goals against the Dockers and the Saints had 37 shots against the Kangaroos.
The Tigers are in great form and they’ll be looking to enter the finals with a win. The Saints have a number of key injuries and we think they’ll just fall short of the finals again this year. Dusty Martin is a great value bet for over 120 Fantasy points as well.
Best bet: Tigers 1-39 ($2.05)
Value bet: Dustin Martin – 120+ fantasy points ($2.15)
Other Round 23 best bets:
Hawks vs Bulldogs
Best bet: Hawks +3.5 ($1.91)
Magpies vs Demons
Best bet: Demons -7.5 ($1.91)
Lions vs Kangaroos
Best bet: Kangaroos +12.5 ($1.91)
Swans vs Blues
Best bet: Swans 40+ ($1.52)
Power vs Suns
Best bet: Power 40+ ($1.57)
Bombers vs Dockers
Best bet: Bombers 40+ ($1.75)
Eagles vs Crows
Best bet: Crows -10.5 ($1.91)