Melbourne Cup Futures Market Trading Guide
The first day of spring is upon us and that means that first Tuesday in November is just over two months away where we will see the 2015 edition of the Emirates Melbourne Cup. In this article I’ll be discussing playing the Melbourne Cup futures market leading up to the great race and how you can make a profit by backing and laying key runners early in their Spring campaign.
First of all I’ll explain what a “lay” bet is. A lay bet is the exact opposite of the standard “back” bet meaning you profit when your runner does not win a race and is usually only available on a betting exchange such a Betfair. When laying a bet you take on the same role as a bookmaker and only pay out when that runner wins.
$100 BACK on Vezalay @ $3.60. Potential profit $260.
Result: 1st – Profit of $260.
Result: 3rd – Loss of $100.
$100 LAY on Vezalay @ $3.60. Potential loss $260.
Result: 1st – Loss of $260
Result: 3rd – Profit of $100.
Once you understand a lay bet you can then combine the two in what’s referred as a “trade.” Traders attempt to back a runner at higher odds and lay them at lower odds which results in a bet that is actually risk free. Example:
$100 BACK on Vezalay @ $4.
$100 LAY on Vezalay @ $3.60.
If Vezalay wins you would receive $300 profit on the back bet and lose $260 on the lay bet resulting in a profit of $40. If Vezalay did not come 1st you would lose your $100 back bet but profit $100 on the lay side, a break-even. Sometimes this can be done on a much bigger scale especially if you are betting early with a corporate bookmaker and laying off come race day.
If a nominated runner puts in an impressive run their odds will be slashed in the futures market, sometimes dramatically. There are many opportunities to do this on the Melbourne Cup futures market as there are a big number of possible participants all over the world and some corporate bookmakers are slow to react, especially with overseas runners.
Another opportunity for a trade is when an announcement confirming an overseas entrant will be travelling to Australia to contest the cup. You will see a big drop in a runner’s odds when this occurs. If you can back a horse as soon as the news is announced before the odds drop you can usually lay off a few days later and have that runner going for potential risk-free profit.
Unfortunately there are no exact rules to follow when attempting a trade and if you get it wrong you will likely have a bet running at a loss regardless of the outcome. Only with patience and experience will you be able to predict odds movements accurately and the Melbourne Cup futures market is a great place to start. Find the market here.
Betfair is offering a 300% deposit bonus this spring up to $50 for new account holders. You will receive $200 to punt with for your $50 deposit!