2015 Melbourne Cup Tips and Preview

So the Melbourne Cup has finally arrived and all of Australia will be looking on to see who takes out the grand prize of $3,500,000. It looked like rain would hit on Tuesday but it has cleared up which means a great day for race-goers. The track is currently a Good 3 and the rail out 2m.

VRC

2015 Group 1 Melbourne Cup Tips

Snow Sky

Lead Up: 5th in G1 Caulfield Cup. Box-seated behind the leader and was didn’t have a run at the top and a portion of the straight. Didn’t show a great deal when clear however stayed on okay in a race dominated by those off the speed.

Distance Record: Has only had one start past 2400m and that was a 3rd in G1 English St Leger over 2937m last year.

Map: Has drawn barrier 16 and usually sits in a forward position. Should be able to find a forward spot before the first turn as most will look to take a sit.

Verdict: 18th.

 

Criterion 

Lead Up:  2nd in G1 Cox Plate over 2040m. Had to be checked off eventual winner’s heels (Winx) twice after settling behind her and arguably could have won the race. Won the G1 Caulfield Stakes over 2000m at start prior so clearly going very well.

Distance Record: Has never attempted close to this distance. Ran 4th in 2013 Victoria Derby over 2500m when flying home from the tail which suggests he can get the trip. Has won over 2400m also.

Map: Barrier 4 means he should be sitting midfield at worst which is the ideal position.

Verdict: 6th.

 

Fame Game

Lead Up: 6th in G1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Settled in the second half of the field and was eventually shuffled back to last rounding the bend. Had to manoeuvre through the field and sprouted wings over the final 100m.  Cup favourite for a reason.

Distance Record: Has finished 6th in 2014 and 2nd in 2015  G1 Tenno Sho over 3200m in Japan. Showed how good he is in the 2015 race when narrowly going down after being stuck in traffic rounding the turn. Has also won the Japanese G3 Diamond Stakes over 3400m and G2 Copa Republica Argentina over 2500m. Clearly the one to beat.

Map: From barrier 12 Zac Purton will position him just behind midfield which is ideal although the horse could win from anywhere with clear running.

Verdict: 1st.

 

Our Ivanhowe

Lead Up: 3rd in G1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Sat midfield and challenged Mongolian Khan coming into the straight but was no match for him. A very good lead-up run into the Cup.

Distance Record: Never raced past 2520m which was two starts back in the G3 Bart Cummings where he came home from midfield for 2nd.

Map: Drawn poorly in barrier 22 and may have to sit further back than usual or risk being trapped wide.

Verdict: 13th.

 

Big Orange

Lead Up: Makes Australian debut in the Melbourne Cup. Died off after leading in the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3299m after losing a shoe and trainer advised he was unsuited by the Good to Soft ground. At his start prior he won the G2 Goodwood Cup over 3218m carrying 61kg.

Distance Record: Has raced over the longer distance for most of his career and has been hit and miss. Best performances have been on a firm track and doesn’t look like he can go if the sting is out of the ground.

Map: Drawn barrier 23 and races on the pace or leads. Probably takes too much out of the tank having to gather speed from wide before trying to slow them down in the middle part of the race.

Verdict: 23rd.

 

Hartnell

Lead Up: 5th in G1 Cox Plate over 2040m. Was steadied off heels at the 500m and was shuffled back a long way losing momentum. Got clear with about 400m to go but was all too late and plugged home.

Distance Record: Was 4th in the G1 Sydney Cup over 3200m on a rain-affected track and won the G1 BMW over 2400m.

Map: Has raced forward and back over career and could go either way from barrier 17. Probably settles forward of midfield with the lack of speed in the race.

Verdict: 16th.

 

Hokko Brave

Lead Up: 10th in the G1 Caulfield Cup when posted wide the ENTIRE trip. Finished 5.9L off winner and probably covered that much extra ground.

Distance Record: 3rd and 6th in 2014 and ’15 G1 Tenno Sho over 3200m.

Map: Drawn barrier 20 but always races back of midfield so barrier not a write-off. Will improve on CC run if doesn’t get trapped again.

Verdict: 7th.

 

Max Dynamite

Lead Up: Yet to run in Australia. Won the G2 Lonsdale Cup in the UK over 3299m.

Distance Record: Won G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3299m by 4.5L in first Group race. Also ran 2nd in a C2 Hcp over 3236m.

Map: Barrier 2 and usually settles midfield. May position closer from the inside draw.

Verdict: 2nd.

 

Red Cadeaux

Lead Up: 3rd in G3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes over 2670m in the UK.

Distance Record: Well known Melbourne Cup record of three 2nds from four attempts. Seems to grow a leg or two at the Flemington 3200m.

Map: Barrier 8 and likely settles forward of midfield.

Verdict: 10th.

 

Trip To Paris

Lead Up: 2nd in G1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Sat on the rails off-midfield and stuck to the rails in the straight. Very strong run.

Distance Record: Yet to win a Group race over similar distance but has finished 2nd and 3rd over 3290m and 3218m in Group company. Has won G1 Ascot Gold Cup over 4023m.

Map: Likes to sit midfield and likely sits there or just behind from barrier 14.

Verdict: 5th.

 

Who Shot Thebarman

Lead Up: 7th in G1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Settled last and was very wide round the bend. Solid run.

Distance Record: Won G1 Auckland Cup over 3200m. 3rd in last year’s Melbourne Cup and was nutted when 2nd in G1 Sydney Cup earlier this year.

Map: Barrier 6 and usually races in the second half of the field. From the decent draw I expect him to sit just forward of midfield.

Verdict: 3rd.

 

Sky Hunter

Lead Up: Yet to run in Australia. Last run was 2nd in G3 Legacy Cup in the UK.  Won a G2 in the UAE at start prior.

Distance Record: Only run past 2400m once and that was over 2671m where 6th of 7 in a Listed race at Newbury (UK).

Map: A front runner and will sit in the first five or six from barrier 7.

Verdict: 22nd.

 

The Offer

Lead Up: G3 Bendigo Cup winner over 2400m.

Distance Record: Won the G1 Sydney Cup last year by 4L and was favourite for last year’s race before being withdrawn.

Map: Drawn barrier 13 and races behind the speed or forward of midfield. I have him settling around 10th.

Verdict: 4th.

 

Grand Marshall

Lead Up: 11th in G1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Could have finished a few positions better but had to be restrained over final 50m. Was near the tail at the top of the straight and got home well.

Distance Record: Won the G1 Sydney Cup over 3200m on wet going. Also won a restricted race at Flemington over 2800m.

Map: Barrier 15 and sits in the last few.

Verdict: 8th.

 

Preferment

Lead Up: 9th in G1 Cox Plate over 2040m. Was poor in the Cox Plate but sat near last and it was tough to make ground at Moonee Valley. Won both starts prior.

Distance Record: Yet to run past 2500m when winning the VRC Derby last year.

Map: Barrier 11 and races near the tail.

Verdict: 14th.

 

Quest For More

Lead Up: 16th in G3 Geelong Cup. Raced wide without cover so had an excuse.

Distance Record: Was 2nd in the G2 Goodwood Cup over 3218m in the UK and won both starts prior over a similar distance. Good record.

Map: Drawn wide in 21 and will go forward. Settles in first four.

Verdict: 11th.

 

Almoonqith

Lead Up: Impressively won the G3 Geelong Cup over 2400m to qualify for the event.

Distance Record: Raced over 2810m and 3200m in the UAE in G3 and G2 events. Ran 1st and 6th respectively.

Map: Usually races near the rear but has settled on the speed and a couple of career starts. Barrier 10 and expect him to be ridden the same way as Geelong Cup. Settles midfield or just off.

Verdict: 12th.

 

Kingfisher

Lead Up: Has run very poorly at past two in the UK. Starts prior include Irish Listed win over 2816m then 2nd to Trip To Paris in G1 Ascot Gold Cup over 4023m.

Distance Record: Last two starts have been over 2816m and hasn’t gone close.

Map: Likes to race off-midfield. Barrier 9 may sit midfield or better.

Verdict: 24th.

 

Prince Of Penzance

Lead Up: 2nd in G2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Uncharacteristically led and only went down over the closing stages.

Distance Record: Ran 2nd in G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2600m at Flemington last year on Emirates day. Won the G2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m in 2014. Two miles shouldn’t be a problem.

Map: Drawn barrier 1 and tough to know what tactics they will adopt. I doubt Michelle Payne will lead but perhaps sits off the pace in sixth to eighth.

Verdict: 20th.

 

Bondi Beach

Lead Up: Ran 2nd in G1 English St Leger over 2937m. and was awarded the race on protest. Later lost the race on appeal. Start prior was 2nd in G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes over 2414m.

Distance Record: Won G3 Curragh Cup over 2816m and 2nd in G1 English St Leger over 2937m.

Map: From barrier 18 I expect Prebble to push forward and sit about fourth in the run.

Verdict: 19th.

 

Sertorius

Lead Up: 9th in G3 Geelong Cup.

Distance Record: Ran 2nd in 2013 G3 Queen Elizabeth over 2600m and 3rd in 2014 G1 Sydney Cup. Perhaps not going well enough but is proven to run out the distance.

Map: Barrier 5 and can sit just forward of midfield.

Verdict: 21st.

 

The United States

Lead Up: Won G2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Won very well up the inside.

Distance Record: Last start was his longest race being 2500m and came from second half of the field at Moonee Valley. Extra distance should suit.

Map: Barrier 3 and usually sits worse than midfield. May try and take up a closer position from the nice draw.

Verdict: 9th.

 

Excess Knowledge

Lead Up: Won the G3 Lexus Stakes over 2500m on Saturday to qualify.

Distance Record: Lexus Stakes was longest start to date and came into the race from the back. Extra distance looks like it will suit.

Map: Drawn widest and has settled off-midfield at recent starts. Could push forward to try and negate the draw.

Verdict: 17th.

 

Gust Of Wind

Lead Up: 4th in G1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Sat far closer than usual in 5th in the run and was the pick of the front runners. Good Cup trial.

Distance Record: Never raced past 2400m. Did beat Winx by 2.5L when winning the G1 Australian Oaks over 2400m although on a wet track.

Map: Barrier 19 and likely sits near the tail unless they press forward again.

Verdict: 15th.

 

Melbourne Cup 2015 Market (accurate as of Monday evening)

Snow Sky $51

Criterion $17

Fame Game $4.40

Our Ivanhoe $20

Big Orange $61

Hartnell $31

Hokko Brave $41

Max Dynamite $13

Red Cadeaux $31

Trip To Paris $8

Who Shot Thebarman $21

Sky Hunter $35

The Offer $35

Grand Marshall $41

Preferment $9

Quest For More $101

Almoonqith $15

Kingfisher $34

Prince Of Penzance $91

Bondi Beach $20

Sertorius $101

The United States $20

Excess Knowledge $31

Gust Of Wind $35

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Melbourne Cup Tips

Fame Game is clear favourite and deservedly so. Looking at the current market I believe the value lies in Who Shot Thebarman and The Offer. I will look to take a position in all runners I believe to be value which include Hokko Brave, Grand Marshall and Quest For More.

 

Good luck with your bets!

November 2, 2015 by : • No Comments

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