Group 3 Aurie’s Star Preview, Tips and Predictions

The first VRC meeting of the new racing season kicks off with the $150k Group 3 Aurie’s Star over 1200m straight at Flemington. There is a small amount of rain forecast for the week in Melbourne but nothing that will greatly affect the track. I’m not a huge fan of these straight races from a wagering perspective as tactics play less of a part than usual but we will try and find the winner for you.

Trust In A Gust has been allocated 60kg with the rest of the field off the minimum 54kg. However it’s worth noting this Weir galloper is rated a whole 15 points above the second highest rater in Le Bonsir, which means under normal race conditions he would carry 7.5kg more on just Le Bonsir. A tilt at the Brisbane winter carnival was planned for this bloke but he was a late scratching in the BTC Cup due to playing up in the gates and that was the end of that. First up here off a four month spell and he does go well fresh.
He is a multiple Group 1 winner and just looks a class above.
Shiraz steps into his first Black Type race and has been installed as the very short favourite after his two impressive wins at Rosehill. His best performances (including his last two wins) have been on rain-affected ground and I believe this will be far tougher for him on the drier Flemington track. A leading chance but I personally could not take under $3 for him.
Play Master won down the Flemington straight last month in the All Victorian Sprint Final just being home Lonrockstar but under half a length and Nadeem Lass was thereabouts again as she always is. The run of Lonrockstar was very good and will meet both slightly better at the weights.
Decircles finished 3L back and looked to be gone at the 250m although he started picking up again over the final stages. The drop to 54kg could see a sharp improvement.
Those round out your leading chances. These straight races are tough to analyse so I’d suggest not going too hard if you are playing.

My Selections for the Group 3 Aurie’s Star
Trust In A Gust
Shiraz
Lonrockstar
Decircles

Luxbet had opened both Trust In A Gust and Shiraz as joint $2.60 favourite and the money has only been for Shiraz. At time of writing Trust In A Gust is listed as $3.20 and I’d suggest waiting until race day before you dive in. The hype around Shiraz should see him stick around the $2.00 mark and the drift on Trust In A Gust may continue.
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Good luck and happy punting!

August 7, 2015 by : • No Comments

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