Group 1 Victoria Derby Day Preview and Tips

Carnival week is just about upon us and it all kicks off with the Group 1 Victorian Derby and the three-year-old winner taking home $900,000 (out of a total $1,500,000) for connections. On top of that we have eight other Group races on the card and a total of $4,500,000 awarded in prize money which is why it’s the best racing day of the year! As of Wednesday evening there are possible thunderstorms forecast for Melbourne on Saturday however there shouldn’t be a great deal of rain so the track won’t be greatly affected. The rail is in the TRUE position and with the 450m straight the backmarkers will be far better suited than in previous weeks. The track is currently rated a Good 3 which I expect to see on race morning. Even if the rain hits we shouldn’t see worse than a Soft 5.

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Race 1

Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes (3yo) 1600m

I don’t expect a break-neck speed set here but it should at-least be solid. Deadly Shadow will be crossing from wide and probably sits outside Mahula with Bassett also pushing forward from a wide draw. Marky Mark was due to make his Australian debut and I had him on top but he has unfortunately been scratched. Gredington got home well at Moonee Valley in the G2 Stutt Stakes and will appreciate the long Flemington straight. Bassett only faded late in the G1 Caufield Guineas and this is far easier today. Patch Adams has drawn the gun run and is never far away.

 

G3 Carbine Club Stakes Tips

Gredington

Bassett

Patch Adams

 

Early money has been for the Bowman/Waller combo Montauk having been backed into $4.60 from $6. Gredington is currently quoted at $10.00 and can hopefully get us off to a flyer. Each-way.

 

Race 2 

Group 2 Wakeful Stakes (3yo F) 2000m

I’m predicting a strong pace in this one for the three-year-old fillies. My Poppette lead all the way last start at Moonee Valley and has drawn similar so I expect they will adopt the same tactics. Bengal Cat (7), Bannatyne (11) and C’est Beau La Vie (6) could also look to lead or at least press forward. Ritzy from barrier 8 also likes to race on the speed. With the strong speed predicted I believe Dawnie Perfect will repeat her effort in the Ethereal Stakes and fly home late for the win over My Poppette. Ambience has been progressing through the grades and also put in a decent run for third in the Ethereal Stakes 1.8L off Dawnie PerfectMuzyka finally broke through for her first win at Wyong by over 5L. It was her first attempt at a staying distance and that performance can perhaps measure up here.

 

G2 Wakeful Stakes Tips

Dawnie Perfect

My Poppette

Ambience

Muzyka

 

My Poppette is the early mover here after being $6.50 into $4.80. Dawnie Perfect has been relatively firm at the $6.00 mark and is worth a wager at those odds.

 

Race 3 

Group 3 Guvera Stakes 1400m

Another strong pace expected here as leaders Kool Kompany and Charmed Harmony have drawn barrier 8 and 14 respectively. Good Project (13) and Sadaqa (9) are also known to have good early toe and will push forward. On top of that there are multiple other front-runners engaged in Messene, Disposition, Ninth Legion and Red Excitement. I am very keen on Messene here as he will get a very cushy run from barrier 4. He flew home for fourth in the G1 Epsom Hcp last start and loves the distance. He drops back from 1600m which is the only downside and sometimes horses can be flat when dropping back in distance. Artlee has an impressive six wins from ten starts and resumed nicely at Randwick last fortnight. He has drawn well, gets in on the minimum weight and will be flying home again. San Diego also resumed well and will be doing the same. Famous Seamus has been unlucky all prep and a win at huge odds wouldn’t be a surprise.

 

G3 Guvera Stakes Tips

Messene

Artlee

San Diego

Famous Seamus

 

Artlee has been the main firmer and is into $6.50 from the $9.00 opening. Messene has drifted out to $12.00 and I’m very happy with those odds. We probably see more on the day also. Famous Seamus is a whopping $35/$9.50 and is worth a small bet at those odds.

 

Race 4 

Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (3yo) 1200m

Down the Flemington straight now and regular readers on my previews will know I dislike betting on them. It’s tough to see Exosphere losing this although it is his first look at a straight race. Ready For Victory is also yet to win down the straight but continues to go close and is best of the rest. Singaporian galloper Super One couldn’t get the win at Cranbourne but has thrashed rivals back home in feature races and must be respected. Keen Array has won his last two starts over 1200m but it’s unlikely he will be able to match it with Exosphere.

 

G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes Tips

Exosphere

Ready For Victory

Super One

Keen Array

 

Straight race + odds on favourite = non-betting race for me. Exosphere is your $1.40 favourite but they are poison odds. Ready For Victory is $26/$4.57 for those betting in every race.

 

Race 5

Group 3 Lexus Stakes 2500m

The Lexus Stakes is an important race for the Melbourne Cup as the winner will get a free ticket into the race. Usually the Lexus Stakes winner runs a good Cup race. Bohemian Lily will look to take up a prominent position and may lead from barrier 5. Elhaame and Manalapan will also go forward. Excess Knowledge has managed second at his past two starts over 2400m and I believe he will go one better today. From barrier 9 he will position behind midfield and look to flood home. Havana Cooler wasn’t far away in the G1 Metropolitan when third behind Magic Hurricane. High Midnight was wide throughout in the G3 David Jones Cup and should have finished far closer than his 4.8L seventh. Bohemian Lily was also wide early in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup and will be grinding home.

 

G3 Lexus Stakes Tips

Excess Knowledge

Havana Cooler

High Midnight

Bohemian Lily

 

There has been some money for Havana Cooler and Ruling Dynasty here but nothing major. Excess Knowledge is firm at $6.00 and High Midnight is $26/$6.00. I’ll be backing High Midnight each-way at that price.

 

Race 6 

Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes 2000m

No major pace in this one. Ecuador and Set Square go forward with Stratum Star attempting to slot in from the wide draw. Magic Hurricane’s win the G1 Metropolitan was big and I believe he can do the same even with the drop back to 2000m. Magic Artist is an interesting runner having his first start in Australia. He is yet to win a Group 1 but has gone close in Italy and Germany. I believe his form will measure up. Flamingo Star will appreciate the rise in distance after flooding home in the G1 Toorak Hcp for fifth after being blocked for the majority of the straight and Set Square won’t be far away but will be tiring late.

 

G1 Mackinnon Stakes 

Magic Hurricane

Magic Artist

Flamingo Star

Set Square

 

No major moves and Magic Hurricane is favourite at $6.00. I’m not overly keen on this race but Magic Artist has drifted to $14.00 and is worth a small play.

 

Race 7

Group 1 Victoria Derby (3yo) 2500m

The premier three-year-old race of the season and this one is an exciting race. I’m predicting a strong 2500m tempo being set with Ayers Rock, Jadeer, Man Of Choice and Palace Tycoon all pushing forward. Colonel Cluster will also likely roll forward from his wide draw. Mick Price has announced Tarzino will settle further forward than usual which I think is a crazy decision. Barrier 10 is an adequate draw for a backmarker and would allow him to sit midfield or worse without a problem. He was too far back to win The Vase at Moonee Valley however the straight is over 250m longer at Flemington and it will be far easier to make ground. A very reactive decision. Etymology hasn’t had the best luck in a few recent starts and I believe he can match it with Tarzino with even luck. His run in the Caulfield Classic was very good after being disappointed for a run and it looks as though the extra distance will suit him. Get The Picture was also solid in the Caulfield Classic when sustaining a long, wide run from the tail and will be doing the same again. WA hope Kia Ora Koutou has drawn the inside and that may hamper his chances if he gets stuck on the inside. However he is a strong winning hope if he gets a clear run.

 

G1 Victoria Derby Tips

Etymology

Tarzino

Get The Picture

Kia Ora Koutou

 

All-in markets have been open for months so there hasn’t been much movement apart from Get The Picture who is $12-$9.50. Etymology is $17/$4.56. KEEN.

 

Race 8

Group 1 Myer Classic (F&M) 1600m

Another race with some pace in it as Solicit, Vergara and Fenway all drawing wide. Miss Rose De Lago also likes to lead but may try and box seat from barrier 2. I am keen on Abidewithme here as she has been unlucky at her last two when racing wide and being blocked last time. She has finally drawn a barrier and will be able to sit far closer than usual. If she is anywhere near midfield rounding the bend and gets a clear run she will be flying home. Stay With Me gets in with a tiny 49kg and will be ridden by Sam Clipperton after her 1000 Guineas win. I see her giving Abidewithme just too much of a head-start and won’t catch her. La Passe got up at odds again last fortnight at Caulfield and has proven she is a very talented mare. Jessy Belle got going late for third in the same race and has won two from four over the mile. She has drawn wide again and may be just too far back.

 

G1 Myer Classic Tips

Abidewithme

Stay With Me

La Passe

Jessy Belle

 

Only firmer has been Miss Rose De Lago ($14-$10). Abidewithme is now $12 and is my bet of the day. Load up.

 

Race 9 

Group 2 Tab.com.au Stakes 1200m

The final race of the day and hopefully we have a few winners already as it’s down the straight. Under The Louvre really was huge in the G3 Mo onga Stakes after being so far back. He is unplaced only once from twelve attempts over 1200m but has never won down the straight. That may change today. Delactation also has a fantastic 1200m record and was only 1L off Chautauqua in the G2 Gilgai Stakes down the straight earlier this month. Knoydart resumed well in that race when third after being crowded for room over the concluding stages. Bring Me The Maid is another 1200m specialist and can’t be discounted.

 

G2 Tab.com.au Stakes Tips

Under The Louvre

Delactation

Knoydart

Bring Me The Maid

 

Only move Dothraki who is $10 into $8.50. Under The Lovure is favourite at $4.00. Would be a no-bet race but Knoydart is posted at $12.00/$3.75 and I will be on at those odds.

 

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Best Bet – Abidewithme

Best Eachway – Etymology

 

Quaddie

1, 9, 11, 12

1, 3, 7, 8, 9

6, 7, 9, 15

5, 6, 8, 12

$100 = 31.25%

 

Good luck and enjoy the best day in Australian racing!!

November 1, 2015 by : • No Comments

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