Group 1 Caulfield Guineas Day Preview and Tips

Apologies for the lateness of this week’s racing preview as I have had major computer issues. Saturday Group racing returns to Caulfield once again and is headlined by the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas. The Caulfield Guineas is one of the premier three-year-old races on the spring calendar and we may see this year’s VRC Derby or Oaks winner taking out one of the features today. Looks like there will be some rain around in the morning and later in the afternoon but nothing that will greatly affect the track conditions. Currently we have a Good 3 and I believe it will be a Good 4/Soft 5 by the end of the day. The rail is at the inside position.

 

Race 6

Group 1 Caulfield Stakes 2000m

The first Group 1 event of the day is the Caulfield Stakes which marks the return of Criterion to Aussie racing after a fairly average stint in the UK. It’s tough to go past Fawkner here after he has put in two cracking runs since returning this spring and he also took out this race last year. His main danger is Kermadec after his fast-finishing win in the G1 George Main at Randwick in September. Mongolian Khan greatly improved second-up in the G1 Underwood Stakes and will benefit from a good run in transit from barrier 2. I’ve got Pornichet in for fourth after he was half a length off Kermadec but I believe the winner will come from one of the top two.

 

G1 Caulfield Stakes Tips

Fawkner

Kermadec

Mongolian Khan

Pornichet

 

Criterion has been the early market move having been backed in to $7.00 after opening at $11.00. There has been a minor move for Fawkner ($5-$4) also. Kermadec is current favourite at $3. I’m pretty happy to take Fawkner to win at anything above $4.00.

 

Race 6

Group 1 Toorak Hcp 1600m

I can see them setting a crazy pace here as multiple runners from wide barriers look to go forward. Strawberry Boy (16), Leebaz (12), Kenjorwood (9), Hi World (13) and Jacquinot Bay (18) will be gunning for the lead or close to it which will set it up for those taking a sit. Lucky Hussler didn’t get a run until late in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last fortnight and has drawn for the perfect run in barrier 4. If he has clear running rounding the bend I can’t see him getting beat. Stratum Star was the eventual winner after he looked beat to me which made his run even more impressive. Abidewithme got home very well after being very wide rounding the bend and Disposition will be right there in the closing stages also.
G1 Toorak Hcp Tips

Lucky Hussler

Stratum Star

Abidewithme

Disposition 

 

Lucky Hussler and Disposition have both been $6 into $4.80 and are your joint early favourites. The only other shortener is Abidewithme ($15-$11). Lucky Hussler is where my money will be going.

 

Race 7

Group 1 Thousand Guineas (3yo F) 1600m

The girls are on show in the first three-year-old Group 1 event and I see Miss Gunpowder getting her own way out in front. She won the prelude event well after shaking off Payroll on straightening and I believe she will do it again. Alaskan Rose was a touch unlucky after failing to obtain clear running and finished a long way off them. I think she will settle in second position in a race that is made for front-runners. Pasadena Girl also had her share of bad luck but could settle towards the tail and it will be tough from there. Jameka rounds out my top four but I don’t consider her a winning chance.

 

G1 Thousand Guineas Tips

Miss Gunpowder

Alaskan Rose

Pasadena Girl

Jameka

 

Jameka has been the biggest move from the early market and is now into $8.00 after opening at $10s. Miss Gunpowder has drifted to $6.50 and Pasadena Girl has been relatively firm at $4.20. Alaskan Rose is out to $29 and that is a completely ridiculous price in my opinion. Definitely worth a wager.

 

Race 8

Group 1 Caulfield Guineas 1600m

The main-event for today and what a brilliant race. I can’t tip against Dal Cielo after the way he kept on in the lead-up after an incredibly strong tempo was set. He will find the front again but the early tempo should be far slower this time around. Press Statement won by a big margin last start and was basically a moral beaten in the Golden Rose at his prior start. He has drawn poorly in 14 though and may be giving the leaders a big head-start. Sovereign Nation was a strong winner at Moonee Valley when coming from the second half of the field and has drawn for the gun run. Lizard Island can also put in a good showing from barrier 2 and should be thrown in your exotics.

 

G1 Caulfield Guineas Tips

Dal Cielo

Press Statement

Sovereign Nation

Lizard Island

 

No major market moves of note. Dal Cielo at $10 and Sovereign Nation at $21 are both very handy prices in my opinion. Press Statement could blow them away but is far too short at $2.40 for me.

 

Best Bet: Fawkner

Best Each-way: Alaskan Rose

 

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Good luck and happy punting!

October 10, 2015 by : • No Comments

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