Group 1 Caulfield Cup Day Preview and Tips

The first of the major cups has arrived and what a day we are in for at Caulfield with seven Group races which we will be covering. A mild 20 degrees is forecast for race goers with a chance of an early morning shower. The rail is out 6m which will slightly favour the front-runners in my opinion. Let’s get in to it.

Race 3 

Group 2 Caulfield Sprint 1000m

Group racing kicks off with the sprinters and I’m very much looking forward to the return of Lumosty. First-up last campaign she absolutely killed them at Flemington and did the same again a fortnight later. Her explosive turn of foot holds her in good stead and should get us off to a great start. Ball Of Muscle is her main danger after his strong debut G1 performance in the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley. Kuro was unlucky not to win when making contact with another runner over the concluding stages last time out but will find this tougher. Kinglike has never finished worse than second so far in his young career and won’t be far away again.

 

G2 Caulfield Sprint Tips

Lumosty

Ball Of Muscle

Kuro

Kinglike

 

Lumosty is currently $3.80 and we probably see better on the day with a couple of talented runners up against her. I still think she will be too good.

 

Race 4 

Group 3 Ethereal Stakes (3yo F) 2000m

The first of two feature three-year-old races with the girls doing battle over 2000m. I can’t see much pace here at all and would usually look towards the possible front-runners however a couple will just be too strong regardless of where they settle. Honesta and Ambience will be running on down the outside and should be too good for the rest of these. I’m favouring Honesta and she is a better price. The Grey Flash and Dawnie Perfect are my next selections but it really is a race in two.

 

G3 Ethereal Stakes Tips

Honesta

Ambience

The Grey Flash

Dawnie Perfect

 

Money has been for Ambience and she is now as short as $2.30 at Luxbet. Honesta is currently quoted at $3.60 which is big value for mine. Honesta to win.

 

Race 5

Group 3 Caulfield Classic (3yo) 2000m 

We have one loan filly in this year’s Caulfield Classic and that perhaps shows the confidence trainer David Hayes has in Sacred Eye. Again bugger all speed engaged and good front-runners should be suited. Lizard Island was huge in the Caulfield Guineas last week and he is my top selection to take this one out. Ayers Rock was strong to the line after leading from go to whoa over 1800m at Flemington earlier this month. He will likely lead again after that performance and should get it easy out in front. Sacred Eye has been very good in all of her three career starts but I just feel like she will just be too far back to catch the top two. Get The Picture will be another running on from the back but is in the same boat as Sacred Eye and will be giving too much of a head start.

 

G3 Caulfield Classic Tips

Lizard Island

Ayers Rock

Sacred Eye

Get The Picture

 

No moves as yet. Lizard Island is $5.00 currently and Ayers Rock $15.00 / $4.50. I’m leaning towards Ayers Rock at those odds as he should be perfectly suited by race tempo.

 

Race 6

Group 3 David Jones Cup 2000m

This race doesn’t excite me much as I can’t find any major value. Stratum Star is drawn for a nice run again and has been performing very well in far stronger races. Dibayani and Fenway have also been racing well along with Velox who is the only chance at odds I can see.

 

G3 David Jones Cup Tips

Stratum Star

Dibayani

Fenway

Velox

 

A non-betting race for me but Stratum Star to win or Velox on an each-way basis is how I would play it.

 

Race 7

Group 3 Moonga Stakes 1400m

Racing over the 1400m here and I am keen on Vashka after his strong win in Sydney last month. His main danger is Under The Louvre who has finished only a head off the winner at his past two starts in Group company. He will be settling near the tail and it may be tough to make ground in another race with a lack of speed. Famous Seamus has been getting home well this campaign and isn’t far away from breaking through for his fifth Group win. Worthy Cause led all the way last start and I expect him to do the same again however will get swamped late.

 

G3 Moonga Stakes Tips

Vashka

Under The Louvre

Famous Seamus

Worthy Cause

 

All the money has been for Under The Louvre but he is incredibly short at the $2.50 offered. Vasha is a $7.00 chance and shouldn’t miss the place. Each-way.

 

Race 8

Group 2 Tristarc Stakes (M) 1400m

A race for the mares in the penultimate Group race of the day and I am very keen on one at odds. Jessy Belle was HUGE in the G2 Blazer Stakes where she was stuck four-wide the entire race and still got going in the straight to finish third. She was one of only two backmarkers that made any ground in the race. She has drawn widest of them today but last run just screams “get on” to me and that’s what I’ll be doing. Gregers hasn’t won in over a year and is hard to catch but I have her going towards to front and that’s where she races best. Hazard was game in defeat in the Blazer Stakes when only losing places late and won’t be far away. Catkins rarely runs a bad race but did last start and whilst she can turn it around I’d prefer to be on a few others.

 

G2 Tristarc Stakes Tips

Jessy Belle

Gregers

Hazard 

Catkins

 

Jessy Belle is $10.00 currently and that is where I’ll be playing. I’ll be hoping a few gun for the lead and set the race up for her.

 

Race 9

Group 1 CAULFIELD CUP 2400m

The race we have all been waiting months for and the first of the two major cups this spring. An incredibly tough race to decipher with a few key runners having their first start in Australia. The only natural leader is Complacent who is second emergency and unlikely to run. Quest For More is another that races up front but is first emergency and also may not take part. Fame Game and Hokko Brave are the Japanese raiders and are the two to beat. I would favour Hokko Brave after comparing first-up records but he has drawn the car-park which will make things tough. Mongolian Khan goes in as favourite after two strong Group 1 performances and is unbeaten over the distance in two attempts. Royal Descent was strong late in the G1 Turnbull Stakes but will have to overcome a wide barrier again. They are my top four in a very tough betting race.

 

G1 Caulfield Cup Tips

Hokko Brave 

Fame Game

Mongolian Khan

Royal Descent

 

The biggest early move has been for Snow Sky ($15.00 – $10.00) who has his first run in Australia before a tilt at the Melbourne Cup. Fame Game is steady at $10.00 and Hokko Brave remains at $15.00. I’m happy to punt that Hokko Brave can show off his talents regardless of his shocking draw.

 

Best Bet – Honesta

Best Eachway – Vasha

 

Luxbet are offering a 300% first deposit bonus for new account holders. That will come in handy this weekend for sure!!

Good luck and happy punting!

October 15, 2015 by : • No Comments

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