Emirates Stakes Day Preview and Tips
The rain well and truly hit on Oaks day and the Flemington track is now in the Heavy range. Relatively fine weather today and tomorrow paired with the excellent drainage the track will likely be in the Soft range. The rail is out to 6m and I believe the best going will be well off the fence. Look for runners to come wide into the straight.
Group 3 Queen’s Cup 2600m
Not much speed in this one and I expect Don Deremo to take up the running. Secret Number looks incredibly hard to beat coming from the UK. He is a lightly raced five-year-old has his first start in Australia. He was won at Group level in his home land and I believe the Northern Hemisphere stayers are a class above. Beaten Up was very impressive in the G1 Metropolitan but was disappointing in the Tatts Club Cup last time out. I think he can bounce back. Geelong Cup runner-up Dandino has strong claims after narrowly missing a run in the Melbourne Cup and Bold Sniper is best of the rest but I believe there are only three chances.
G3 Queen’s Cup Tips
Only Secret Number has been backed and is $2.50 in from $2.70. The rest remain firm.
Group 1 Darley Classic 1200m
One of the premier sprints of the Flemington carnival and every man and his dog will be tipping Chautauqua. Lumosty was scratched from Oaks day to run here and she is my top selection. She has drawn the outside barrier and Shinn will have her in the best ground near the outside rail. Her dead heat win in the Caulfield Sprint was full of interference and she should have won comfortably. Chautauqua is clearly the one to beat but his inside barrier may be costly. He is unbeaten this campaign and won the G1 Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley like he was up against B-graders. Delactation was only a length off Chautauqua two starts back when they met down the Flemington straight again and was unlucky in the G2 Tab.com.au Stakes last start. Srikandi has only missed a place once over 1200m and will be chasing hard all the way to the line.
G1 Darley Classic Tips
As expected Chautauqua is your short favourite and is quoted at $1.65. Lumosty has moved from $13.00 into $10.00 and is still great value for mine.
Group 1 Emirates Stakes 1600m
Should be a strong early tempo set with leaders Arod, Turn Me Loose and Coronation Shallan all drawing wide. Bow Creek and Ecuador could also get involved in an early speed battle. I’m tipping Lucky Hussler to step back into the winner’s circle after he went down as short favourite in the G2 Crystal Mile. If he can get to the good ground down the centre of the track in the straight he will be hard to beat. Politeness has won three on the trot against the girls and makes the jump to open company. Her wins have all been very impressive and will get a similar run to Lucky Hussler. Right in it. Bow Creek flew home over the closing stages at Moonee Valley and will appreciate the longer Flemington straight. Messene was a failure when I tipped him to win last start but was in the slow lane and will be far better this time.
G1 Emirates Stakes Tips
Politeness has been the major mover after being hammered into $8.50 after opening at $15. Lucky Hussler is firm at $9.00 and Messene has drifted to $61/$16. Both worth a wager at those odds.
Group 2 Presto Matriarch Stakes (M) 2000m
The final feature of the day and we have a large field of mares going around. Lucia Valentina has been racing in the premier Group 1s this spring and will find this far easier against just her own gender. Casino Dancer was coming home strongly for third last start after winning a black type race at her start prior. Managaress was average at Moonee Valley last start but her form prior is very strong and Sure You Can makes her Group racing debut after a good performance also at Moonee Valley.
G2 Presto Matriarch Stakes Tips
Sure You Can
Lucia Valentina has received the best backing and is $7-$4.60. Nothing else has firmed. Casino Dancer is $15.00 and represents stronger value.