AFL Round 4 Betting Preview 2017

AFL Betting Preview – Round 4

The Crows are flying at the top of the ladder and Richmond have started with a 3-0 record. While last year’s Grand final runners up (Sydney) are 0-3 and Hawthorn are yet to win a game.

Bet for Free previews the two best games of AFL Round 4, 2017 and we provide our best bets for each game.

Feature Game #1 – GWS Giants vs Port Adelaide Power

Odds: Giants $1.30, Power $3.55

Form:

The Giants have won two straight matches after a heavy defeat in Round 1. They beat the Power by 86 points in the corresponding fixture last year.

For the Power, they lost a fourth straight Showdown to the Crows and will be missing their ruckman. Ollie Wines was best on ground for Port, as he racked up 30 disposals, kicking 2 goals and laid 7 tackles.

Injuries/Suspensions:

Patrick Ryder will miss the clash with the Giants after accepting a one match suspension for striking.

The Giants lost Ryan Griffen for 8-10 weeks with an ankle injury last match.

Last 3 meetings:

Round 18, 2016 at Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide defeated by GWS
60-79

Round 4, 2016 at Manuka Oval
GWS defeats Port Adelaide
151-65

Round 20, 2015 at Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide defeats GWS
111-90

Margin/Line betting

The -22.5 line for the Giants looks juicy as GWS defeated the Power in Canberra by 80+ points last year and have averaged 134.5 ppg over the past two weeks.

To get 30+ disposals:

Ollie Wines is currently $1.80 to gather 30+ disposals and averages 31.7 this season (33 –
career high in Round 1). Dylan Shiel ($2.10) has come close to 30+ in all three games and signed a new contract this week. While, Josh Kelly is the best bet at the Giants after collecting 30 last week against the Roos.

Prediction

Shane Mumford and his midfield should dominate the centre without Ryder, while Jeremy Cameron and the Giants small forwards have more points in them compared to the Power.

Best bet: GWS -22.5 ($1.92)
Value bet: Josh Kelly 30+ more disposals ($2.00)
First goal scorer: Jeremy Cameron ($7.00)


Feature Game #2 – Collingwood Magpies vs St Kilda Saints

Magpies $1.80, Saints $2.02

Form:

Both teams earned their first victory of the AFL season last week. Collingwood travelled to Sydney and knocked off the Swans by a point. While, the Saints got the 4 points against the Lions with 5 unanswered goals in the fourth quarter.

For the Magpies, Will Hoskin-Elliot continues to impress with another 3 goals on the weekend and Alex Fasolo kicked 4 goals in the first half. The tackling pressure of the Magpies was intense and they will need the same against St Kilda’s midfield.

St Kilda were solid against the Lions and will need to improve their goal kicking. The Saints have kicked 42 behinds in the last two matches, which cost them victory over in Perth against the Eagles. Nick Reiwoldt made a successful after missing last week’s match with a knee injury.

Injuries/Suspensions:

David Armitage and Jack Steven are both expected back this week to bolster the Saints midfield.

Daniel Wells and Jamie Elliot will most likely return for the Pies.

Margins/Line betting

In the past four clashes, the average winning margin has been 53.75 points. St Kilda’s lowest score this season is just 90 points and they average 98 ppg. While, the Magpies average 82 ppg. The under points margin of 190.5 looks to be the best bet.

To get 30+ disposals:

Adam Treloar has reached the 30 disposal mark in two of three games this season and is $1.40 to reach 30 again. Taylor Adams has also hit 30+ in two games and is paying $1.72.

Leigh Montagna ($2.50) had 40 disposals against the Pies last year and collected 30 against the Lions last week. He’s a definite value bet.

Last 3 meetings:

Round 3, 2016 at MCG
St Kilda defeats Collingwood
119-90

Round 3, 2015 at MCG
Collingwood defeats St Kilda
140-66

Round 11, 2014 at Etihad Stadium
St Kilda defeated by Collingwood
54-140

Prediction

This match will be close with the current betting line at 2.5. The Pies don’t really have a matchup for Nick Reiwoldt and the potential return of Steven pushes the advantage in the Saints favour. The Pies are coming off a tough away win, while the Saints love playing at Etihad. We’re going with the Saints in a close match.

Best bet: Under 190.5 points ($1.90)
Value bet: L. Montagna 30+ disposals ($2.50)
First goal scorer: Alex Fasolo ($9.00)


Other Round 4 best bets:

Eagles vs Swans

Best bet: Swans +17.5 ($1.90)
Overs/Unders: Under 185.5 points ($1.90)

Kangaroos vs Bulldogs

Best bet: Bulldogs 1-39 ($2.20)
Overs/Unders: Under 186.5 points ($1.90)

Demons vs Dockers

Best bet: Dockers +23.5 ($1.92)
Overs/Unders: Under 180.5 points ($1.90)

Bombers vs Crows

Best bet: Bombers +38.5 ($1.92)
Overs/Unders: Over 194.5 points ($1.90)

Blues vs Suns

Best bet: Suns WIN ($1.75)
Overs/Unders: Over 188.5 points ($1.90)

Lions vs Tigers

Best bet: Tigers -17.5 ($1.92)
Overs/Unders: Over 190.5 points ($1.90)

Hawks vs Cats

Best bet: Hawks +16.5 ($1.92)
Overs/Unders: Under 185.5 points ($1.90)

April 11, 2017 by : • No Comments

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