AFL – Preliminary Finals Preview – 2017

AFL Betting Preview – Preliminary Finals

Bet for Free previews the two best games of the AFL Preliminary Finals 2017 and we provide our best bets for each game.

Adelaide Crows vs Adelaide Crows

Odds: Crows $1.38, Crows $3.05

Form:

The Crows are one win away from the Grand Final and the Cats stand in their way. Adelaide won through to the Preliminary Final with a comprehensive 36 point win over the Giants. They’ll take confidence from a 21 point win over the Cats in Round 18.

Geelong were outstanding in the Semi Finals as they knocked off the Swans by 59 points. They now travel to the Adelaide Oval for a chance at the Grand Final. They’ve won four of their five matches and they’ll be up for the challenge.

Injuries/Suspensions:

The Crows didn’t really miss Sloane in the Qualifying final but he’ll be back this week. But Mitchell McGovern is in real doubt with a hamstring injury. For the Cats, Tom Stewart should be okay from a minor hamstring against the Swans and Tom Lonergan should return after a bout of food poisoning.

Last 3 meetings:

Round 18, 2017
Adelaide Oval
Adelaide defeats Geelong 91-70

Round 11, 2017
Simonds Stadium
Geelong defeats Adelaide 96-74

Round 18, 2016
Simonds Stadium
Geelong defeats Adelaide 85-55

Margin/Line betting:

The Crows and Cats last 6 meetings have been decided by the 1-39 margin, so hopefully this is a close final. The Crows last three matches have been a 1-39 result. But the Cats have played in three straight 40+ matches. However, this match is on Adelaide’s turf and the Cats lost the last meeting here in Round 18. So we would bet on the 1-39 margin, mainly in the Crows favour.

Total points:

Most of the AFL finals so far have been low scoring and this should be another. No team has kicked over 100 points in the last four meetings. Adelaide kicked 12 goals against the Giants and the Cats scored 15 against the Swans. So we would expect around 10-12 goals from each side and the under total points would be best bet.

Prediction:

The Cats are at long odds in the betting but we think this will finally be the close final we’ve been waiting for. Geelong found form last week and they should be able to cover the 18.5 points line. Although, we would back the Crows at home as they have a 9-3 record at the Adelaide Oval in 2017. They also beat the Cats here just two months ago.
Best bet: Under 171.5 points ($1.88)
Best bet: Cats +18.5 ($1.91)
Value bet: Crows 1-39 ($2.00)


Richmond Tigers vs GWS Giants

Odds: Tigers $1.55, Giants $2.45

Form:

The Tigers faithful have waited a long time but their team is just one win from the Grand Final. They thrashed the Cats in the first final and they have a good matchup against the Giants. Richmond haven’t made the Grand Final since 1982 and the MCG will be rocking on Saturday afternoon.

GWS returned to form last week with a crushing 67 point win over the Eagles. But the trip to the MCG against the Tigers will be tough. They lost here in Round 18 against the Tigers and they’ve only won 1 match at the MCG in their history (Round 21, 2014 against Melbourne).

Injuries/Suspensions:

The Tigers have a clean bill of health for the finals which is a major reason why they’re in-form. On the other hand, the Giants are missing Mumford and Cameron. Devon Smith is probably a 50/50 chance with a knee injury.

Last 3 meetings:

Round 18, 2017
MCG
Richmond defeats GWS 64-45

Round 9, 2017
Spotless Stadium
GWS defeats Richmond 78-75

Round 19, 2016
Manuka Oval
GWS defeats Richmond 111-23

Margin/Line betting:

The Giants closest result in the last 6 matches is 21 points so they haven’t played a real close match. The Tigers have won by 40+ in their last three matches. But this is a final and both sides are in good touch, so it should be a 1-39 match. The Tigers are the best option in the 1-39 at the MCG against an interstate team.

Total points:

The total reached just 109 points in the last meeting at the MCG, but that was in the heavy rain. The Round 9 clash ended in a 78-75 result and we would expect another 130-150 total points finish in the Preliminary Final.

Prediction:

Richmond are at home and the Giants have a very poor record at the MCG. Which has us backing the Tigers to make the Grand Final. They defeated the Cats by 51 points and they’ll be coming off the bye.
Best bet: Under 162.5 points ($1.88)
Best bet: Tigers -9.5 ($1.91)
Value bet: Tigers 1-39 ($2.10)

September 19, 2017 by : • No Comments

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