AFL – Grand Final Betting Preview – 2017

AFL Betting Preview – AFL Grand Final

Bet for Free previews the 2017 AFL Grand Final below with an overview of each side’s form, head to head history and betting predictions. The Crows haven’t played in the Grand Final since 1998 and they have a 2-0 record on the big stage. While for Tiger fans, this will be the first appearance since the 1982 Grand Final loss. They haven’t won the Grand Final since 1980 and they’ll will be desperate to end that streak.

Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers

Odds: Crows $1.68, Tigers $2.20

Form:

The Adelaide Crows will start as the favourite to win the Grand Final and they have been a dominant side in the AFL this season. They thrashed the Cats last week and they beat the Giants in Week 1 by 6 goals. They have a good record against the Tigers and they’ll be tough to bet against. The Crows won by 76 points in Round 6 against the Tigers and they kicked 21 goals to 10.

But the Tigers fans will be rooting hard for their first Grand Final victory since 1980. They have been a great story all season and their finals form looks like they’re ready. They beat the Cats in Week 1 by 51 points and then put away the Giants by 36 in the Preliminary Final. They are on a four match winning streak and the closest margin is 36 points. But they haven’t beaten the Crows since 2014 and this will be their toughest challenge of the season.

Injuries/Suspensions:

The Crows will have Rory Sloane after the MRP cleared his tackle. They’re really only missing Brodie Smith to injury.

Richmond have a clean bill of health and Trent Cotchin is free to play.

Last 3 meetings:

Round 6, 2017
Adelaide Oval
Adelaide defeats Richmond 140-64

Round 3, 2016
Etihad Stadium
Richmond defeated by Adelaide 92-128

Round 19, 2015
Adelaide Oval
Adelaide defeats Richmond 88-52

Margin/Line betting:

The Crows have won the last three against the Tigers but this should be a closer game at the MCG. Both teams are new to the Grand Final which means the 1-39 margin will likely occur. The Crows are 2-1 against the 1-39 at the MCG this season and they’re also 2-1 against the Tigers in the same margin.

Total points:

Adelaide have a number of options up forward and they were ranked #1 in the AFL for points per game. In the last two meetings against the Tigers, they have kicked 128+ and the over total has easily paid off. Both sides kicked 100+ points last week and we can see a high scoring game in the Grand Final. The over total has also came through in the last two meetings at the MCG so it’s good bet here.

First Goal Scorer:

For the Crows first goal scorer, we would steer clear of Taylor Walker as the matches up with Rance. So we look at either Eddie Betts or Charlie Cameron. The Tigers don’t have great options for small forwards and both players are goal sneaks. Cameron kicked the first goal last week and he’s huge value at $8. Betts ($5) is playing in his first Grand Final and hopefully he can light up the crowd in the early stages with the first goal.

For the Tigers, Jack Riewoldt has kicked the first goal four times this year but he has a tough matchup. Daniel Rioli ($7) would be the best bet after kicked 4 goals last week. Josh Caddy ($8) is also an interesting choice as he has kicked the first or second goal in his last four matches.

Prediction:

We’re hoping for a close Grand Final after a less than close final series. The Crows are the favourites in the betting and they deserve to be. They have dominated in the finals and they are the best side in the AFL. But the Tigers won’t go down without a fight. The difference will be whether the Tigers defence can stop the Crows forward line. Which looking at the stats, the Crows have a massive edge. So we would back the Crows to win by 1-39 and the over total points is the best bet.
Best bet: Over 173.5 points ($1.90)
Value bet: Crows 1-39 ($2.25)


September 25, 2017 by : • No Comments

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