AFL – Finals Week 1 Preview – 2017
AFL Betting Preview – Finals Week 1
The AFL finals are here and we’re pumped for four enticing matches. The Crows kick off the finals on Thursday night against the Giants.
Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants
The Crows lost two matches coming into the finals and they’ll face the Giants at home on Thursday night football. However, they have a great record at home this season as they’ve won 8 of 11 matches. The Crows beat the Giants in Round 1 by 56 points as well.
GWS face a tough test in the first final as they head to Adelaide. They were dominated by the Cats in Round 23 and they have a few question marks. At the Adelaide Oval, they have a 1-4 record and they’ll need to be at their best to win this.
Taylor Walker and Daniel Talia missed Round 23. While Rory Sloane had his appendix removed recently, he should be right.
The Giants injury list has cleared at the right time. Only Ryan Griffen is missing and he could play in the next final.
Last 3 meetings:
Round 1, 2017
Adelaide defeats GWS 147-91
Round 10, 2016
Adelaide defeats GWS 107-85
Round 8, 2015
GWS defeats Adelaide 108-84
The Crows and Giants haven’t played in a close match together in the 8 meetings. In Round 1, the Crows beat them by 56 points at the Adelaide Oval. But in finals, the Giants should produce a closer result. We would suggest the 1-39 margin.
Adelaide have the best attack and they average 190 total points in matches this season. The Giants average 94.6 points per game and they have a wealth of talent up forward. This figures to be a high scoring game and we would back the over points.
The Crows are coming into the finals with average form but they have the wood over the Giants. The Giants should improve from the last meeting but it’s hard to back against the Crows at home.
Best bet: Giants +14.5 ($1.91)
Value bet: Crows 1-39 ($2.10)
Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers
Geelong take on Richmond in a Friday night final at the MCG. The Cats thrashed the Giants in Round 23 and they’re coming into the finals with impressive form. They’ve also not lost against the Tigers since 2006.
Richmond fans are loving life after Dusty re-signed and they get an away final at the MCG. But they need to overcome the Cats, a side they have struggled against in the last decade. They head into the finals with four wins from the last five and they’ll have the crowd on there side.
The Cats will sweat on the fitness of Joel Selwood after he missed the last three matches of the season. Cockatoo and Parsons are also a 50/50 chance.
Richmond should get Josh Caddy back and their injury list is almost empty.
Last 3 meetings:
Round 21, 2017
Geelong defeats Richmond 80-66
Round 21, 2016
Richmond defeated by Geelong 78-82
Round 5, 2015
Richmond defeated by Geelong 76-85
While the Cats have dominated the Tigers, the margin in the last four meeting averages just 8 points. This should be another close match and the 1-39 margin is the best bet.
Both sides average over 90 points per game this season. However, the total points averages just 156 points in the last four meetings. We would suggest the under total points.
This should be a classic match at the MCG. We would back the under total points as the best bet. The Tigers haven’t had much success against the Cats recently, but they’re a value bet over $2. Especially since this match is at the MCG.
Best bet: Under 160.5 points ($1.88)
Value bet: Tigers WIN ($2.10)
Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers
Sydney are one of the form final sides as they’ve won four straight matches. They have the best forward in the AFL (Franklin) and they have a great finals record at home.
The Bombers face the toughest challenge of the Week 1 finals as they head to the SCG. However, they should of beaten the Swans in Round 14 and they’ll be looking for an upset.
Sydney will welcome back Hannebery and Papley for this one. The ruck is an interesting choice as Tippett, Sinclair and Naismith will battle for the 2 spots.
The Bombers will be hoping Fantasia, Hurley and Hooker can prove there fitness.
Last 3 meetings:
Round 14, 2017
Sydney defeats Essendon 86-85
Round 7, 2016
Sydney defeats Essendon 135-54
Round 1, 2015
Sydney defeats Essendon 72-60
The Swans are 7-0 against the Bombers and the average winning margin is 30 points. So the 1-39 margin is the best bet.
Both sides average around 95 points per game. However, the Swans are much better in defence as they average 75 ppg compared to Essendon’s 91. This should be a high scoring match though at the smaller SCG. We would back the over total.
The Bombers are massive underdogs in this clash but they should be able to get within 5 goals of the Swans. We think the Swans will win and cover the 1-39 margin.
Best bet: Over 171.5 points ($1.88)
Value bet: Swans 1-39 ($2.10)
Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles
The Power are back in the finals and they’ve won three straight matches in the regular season. They went 8-3 at home this season and they beat the Eagles in Round 16.
West Coast secured the last spot in the eight and they head to the Adelaide Oval. They’ll take confidence from three straight wins at the venue against the Power.
The Power are missing Tom Jonas with suspension but they’re mostly injury free.
Jeremy McGovern has a sore shoulder for the Eagles but he’ll likely lineup.
Last 3 meetings:
Round 16, 2017
West Coast defeated by Port Adelaide 88-120
Round 7, 2017
Port Adelaide defeated by West Coast 87-97
Round 9, 2016
Port Adelaide defeated by West Coast 86-94
The Eagles and Power love close matches as the last 6 matches have been decided by a 1-39 margin. In the pressure of a final, the two sides will likely play another close one.
The over total points has succeeded in the last three meetings. In Round 16 this season, the Power kicked 120 points and the total reached 208 points. Back the over total here.
This should be another close final as the two sides match up well together. The line is in the Power’s favour at 15.5 points but the Eagles should be able to get within that margin. The best bet is the over total points as the stats say this should be high scoring.
Best bet: Over 168.5 points ($1.88)
Value bet: Eagles +15.5 ($1.91)