2018 Tancred Stakes – Preview and Tips

Previously called the BMW International, it has reverted back to its better-known name as the Tancred Stakes. It’s pretty much the same field that assembled for last weeks Ranvet Stakes, with Gailo Chop looking likely as the one to beat.

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Here’s the field as they line up for the 2018 Tancred Stakes:

X1121 1. Gailo Chop (8), J: M Zahra, W: 59 kgs, 2.35
02x24 2. Almandin (10), J: K Mc Evoy, W: 59 kgs, 3.70
450x9 3. Ambitious (3), J: C Williams, W: 59 kgs, 15.00
X2816 4. Harlem (7), J: M J Walker, W: 59 kgs, 26.00
91x67 5. Who Shot Thebarman (9), J: H Bowman, W: 59 kgs, 34.00
7x561 6. Auvray (2), J: J R Collett, W: 59 kgs, 10.00
28x42 7. Libran (6), J: B Avdulla, W: 59 kgs, 17.00
0x437 8. Ventura Storm (4), J: D Oliver, W: 59 kgs, 26.00
X2252 9. Single Gaze (1), J: Ms K O'Hara, W: 57 kgs, 7.50
00x78 10. Lasqueti Spirit (5), J: J Ford, W: 56.5 kgs, 101.00

Gailo Chop is the form horse of this years Tancred Stakes. He’s remodelled himself to be the iron-horse of Australian racing. He’s nearly unbeatable up to 2000m, but can he go the extra step and win at 2400m? He’s only raced once over the distance in Dubai and was unplaced. That is the big question.

His biggest rival will be 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Almandin, who is reunited with Kerrin McEvoy who rode him to win that day. His form is good, and he was right on their heels in the Australian Cup last start, without being able to get a good crack at the horses in front of him. Distance will suit, and he’ll most likely start second fave.

My pick for the race is Single Gaze. She’ll relish the distance like a few other contenders here, and is as consistent as they come. Has the inside gate, so if she races on the speed, is a definite prospect. Placed second in the Caulfield Cup last year over the same distance, so has credentials.

He’s proven over 3200m, and is gearing up for a crack at the Sydney Cup, so the Chris Waller trained Libran should come into consideration for this race. He might be one run off his peak, but could still surprise. His SP of $17 suggests the punters are having a good think about his chances.

The two Lindsay Park gallopers Harlem and Ventura Storm were both out of the money on a soft track last week at Rosehill in the Ranvet. Prior to that, they ran first and third in the Australian Cup. I think that form-line holds better than the Ranvet, and depending on what the track is doing this weekend, should not be ignored, though their SP is way over. Maybe that is the Sydney/NSW punting collective doing the talking.

The former French stayer Auvray has come into the betting, and may make it down to single figure odds by Saturday. A last start winner, and showing superior form over distance, this horse could be the bolter of the field, though prior form has been erratic. Keep safe, take on trust and throw him into your wider selections.

Former Japanese galloper Ambitious had a fair start to his Australian career with a ninth in the Australian Cup the other week. We didn’t know a lot about him then, he’ll be better for the run, but I think he’ll be just outside the placegetters.

Two horses I am not considering are former Group 1 winners Who Shot Thebarman and Lasqueti Spirit, both horribly out of form.

Winner:
Given that she has form over the distance and is building nicely toward The Championships, I’ll go with Single Gaze this week, with proven stayer Almandin close up. I’m not convinced that Gailo Chop is a better horse over the 2400m trip, but I’ll concede his ability if he does get up. Do keep an eye on the two Lindsay Park runners too: Harlem and Ventura Storm.

Trifecta
Single Gaze, Almandin, Gailo Chop.

Best Roughie:
Ventura Storm, who has an SP of $26.00. I consider this to be way over the odds, given his Australian Cup run, and also his preference for longer races. Keep in mind, the Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig stable are on fire at the moment.

Tancred Stakes – check the odds on William Hill

March 29, 2018 by : • No Comments

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