2018 Australian Guineas – Preview and Tips

This is an extremely good field that assembles at Flemington for the 2018 edition of the Australian Guineas. The field includes three Group 1 winners in Mighty Boss, the Kiwi Embellish and the filly Aloisia. Elsewhere, there are a number of real possibilities.

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Here’s the field:

41x78 1. Mighty Boss (2), J: M Walker, W: 56.5 kgs, 13.00
12612 2. Cliff'S Edge (16), J: J Allen, W: 56.5 kgs, 4.20
11426 3. Embellish (9), J: O Bosson, W: 56.5 kgs, 21.00
661x5 4. Levendi (10), J: B Melham, W: 56.5 kgs, 18.00
15233 5. Muraaqeb (15), J: D Lane, W: 56.5 kgs, 21.00
31417 6. Villermont (7), J: L Nolen, W: 56.5 kgs, 21.00
135x4 7. Main Stage (5), J: R Bayliss, W: 56.5 kgs, 20.00
13x35 8. Addictive Nature (8), J: C Williams, W: 56.5 kgs, 10.00
139x1 9. Holy Snow (14), J: M Dee, W: 56.5 kgs, 21.00
273x2 10. Salsamor (12), J: J Childs, W: 56.5 kgs, 34.00
3x111 11. Grunt (17), J: D Oliver, W: 56.5 kgs, 5.50
22236 12. Black Sail (3), J: B Thompson, W: 56.5 kgs, 31.00
31217 13. Peaceful State (11), J: B Rawiller, W: 56.5 kgs, 13.00
14423 14. Mr So And So (6), J: B Mertens, W: 56.5 kgs, 21.00
116x5 15. Aloisia (13), J: M Zahra, W: 54.5 kgs, 7.00
102x2 16. Bring Me Roses (1), J: L Currie, W: 54.5 kgs, 21.00
13556 17. Paret (18), J: C Newitt, W: 56.5 kgs, 51.00
45x44 18. Mahalangur (4), J: D Dunn, W: 56.5 kgs, 101.00

The Australian Guineas has proven to be an exciting race in recent years. We’ve seen the likes of Hey Doc, Wandjina and Shamus Award take home the chocolates. Let’s see if we can find a winner for 2018’s event.

Topweight Mighty Boss is a horse that’s hard to miss on the racetrack. The flashy chestnut has been racing against the older horses this prep, and gets back to his own group for this one. I’m sure the roomy Flemington straight will help him, and from a kind draw, expect him to be prominent.

I do like Cliff’s Edge. He’s a bold frontrunner, and if he finds a few lengths on his opposition at the top of the straight, it’ll take something special to pip him. He’s definitely in my top three picks.

The horse with the best form leading in is Grunt. This bloke got up over Cliff’s Edge in last weeks C.S Hayes Stakes in a great dress rehearsal for this. Both horses will be fighting it out for favouritism come Saturday.

The Te Akau representative Embellish came with good form from New Zealand. He won the Group 1 2000 Guineas at Riccarton Park late last year, but his two recent runs saw him slip off the radar slightly. He’d have to be racing near his best to be a contender here, and frankly, I can’t see it.

Another former Kiwi is the filly Aloisia, winner of the Group 1 One Thousand Guineas at Caulfield back in October, along with the Moonee Valley Vase, where she beat Cliff’s Edge and Salsamor. She got found out in the VRC Oaks, the longer distance a query. The 1600 metres here will be right up her alley. Expect a bold showing.

The two Bussitin/Young gallopers Main Stage and Salsamor are part of a growing stable of competitive three-year-olds out at Cranbourne. The former’s run last week in the C.S Hayes for fourth was eye-catching, while the latter came back into this prep with a recent second in a benchmark race at Sandown. I think both will be coming in behind the first three, so count them for your first-four selections.

If she gets to Sydney for the Autumn Carnival, then the good staying prospect Bring Me Roses is one name to circle the pen around. Winner of the Edward Manifold Stakes, and runner-up to Pinot in the VRC Oaks, it’s clear she has a liking for Flemington, and on that note, she gets my vote as best roughie of the race.

Of the others, the lightly raced Mr So And So has been in good recent form, but his only win so far was his breakthrough maiden at Echuca some months back. It would be a surprise if he won it, but then again, anyone remember Shamus Award and the W.S Cox Plate?

Levendi was a youngster I saw win the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes on VRC Derby Day last year. He hasn’t had a lot of racing, but the son of Pierro seems to be a progressive type, and wouldn’t surprise if he ran a place.

The Lindsay Park colt Muraaqeb is another on the way up. This will be his first assault on a Group 1 race, so it will be interesting to see how he goes. Maybe the Euroa team will get him up to Sydney in a few weeks time?

The trio of Villermont, Peaceful State and Black Sail bring form out of last years Group 2 Sandown Guineas. However, I don’t think that form-line hold much sway considering the other contenders mentioned above.

Winner:
For me, I’m going with Cliff’s Edge. I think he deserves a Group 1 such as the Australian Guineas, based on his brave racing style. He’s got a wide draw, but he races from the front so expect him to get across early. I’ll stick with Mighty Boss, a handy barrier and tactical riding from Michael Walker will be key to his chances. For third, I’ll go with Grunt. He hasn’t proven himself at Group 1 level yet, which is a concern and has only raced four times, but it seems he’s a quick learner as he progresses through the grades.

Trifecta
Cliff’s Edge, Mighty Boss, Grunt

Best Roughie:
Bring Me Roses A$21 SP

Australian Guineas – check the odds on William Hill

March 1, 2018 by : • 1 Comment

One Response to “2018 Australian Guineas – Preview and Tips”

  1. Fairly wide open field, and believe me, there are a few horses outside of the three I have selected (above) that could get up. That’s racing for you.

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