2017 Kennedy Oaks – Preview and Tips

Kennedy Oaks, Flemington Tips 2500m

It’s Ladies Day Thursday. Apart from last years sensational victor Lasqueti Spirit, the Kennedy Oaks has usually thrown up the favourite as the winner. And for this year’s race, it’s hard to look past one of three horses: Aloisia, Luvaluva and Pinot.

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Here is how the young ladies of the turf line up for Thursday’s Kennedy Oaks:

1 ALOISIA (NZ) (9), A Purcell, L Nolen, 55.5kg, $1.65
2 LUVALUVA (NZ) (10), J Sargent, B Shinn, 55.5kg, $6.50
3 BRING ME ROSES (7), T McEvoy, L Currie, 55.5kg, $20.00
4 PINOT (6), G Waterhouse & A Bott, S Baster, 55.5kg, $6.00
5 RIMRAAM (NZ) (12), D & B Hayes & T Dabernig, K McEvoy, 55.5kg, $14.00
6 HIYAAM (NZ) (5), M Price, M Dee, 55.5kg, $21.00
7 LUCKY LOUIE (11), A & E Cummings, B Melham, 55.5kg, $101.00
8 RELIABLE DAME (NZ) (4), A Freedman, C Williams, 55.5kg, $16.00
9 SWEET MISCHIEF (3), T McEvoy, Ms J Kah, 55.5kg, $61.00
10 FOUR KOALAS (8), B McGrath, TBA, 55.5kg, $91.00
11 CIRCULEIGHT (2), T Busuttin & N Young, M Walker, 55.5kg, $126.00
12 MISS ADMIRATION (1), M Price, TBA, 55.5kg, $201.00

Former New Zealand filly Aloisia should be a raging hot favourite, after demolishing her rivals (including the colts) in her last start win in the Vase at Moonee Valley on W.S Cox Plate day. Before that, she blew away her own gender in the One Thousand Guineas, and to be honest, looks a cut above the rest. I’m predicting she could be a dominant force in the Autumn too. A year ago, Aloisia had her first race-day start back in New Zeeland in my small home-town of Wairoa. She’s come a long way since then.

Adding to the Kiwi flavour is the John Sargent trained Luvaluva, winner of the Wakeful Stakes in the most dramatic of finishes on Derby Day last Saturday. Sargent has an excellent recent record in the Oaks, with former charges Kirramosa winning in 2013 and Thunder Lady finishing runner-up to Set Square in 2014. Luvaluva ran second to the promising Chris Waller colt Kaonic back on Oct 21, but her fortunes are on the rise when sent over longer distances.

Bring Me Roses was one of the favoured fillies in the Wakeful but failed to show up after over-racing throughout. The Winner of the Edward Manifold Stakes earlier, she is too good to ignore. Luke Currie is back onboard, and better things are expected from the South Australian visitor.

The promising Waterhouse/Bott filly Pinot is one that is on the rise. She’s won her last two races: the Ethereal Stakes on Caulfield Cup day, and prior to that, the Kennedy Oaks Trial. She’s already met a few of her rivals this Spring and come out on top. My only query is whether this Pierro bred filly can get the 2500m trip.

Another promising filly is the Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig filly Rimraam. She has not been out of the money since her race day debut at Geelong back in late May. In the industry, they would call Rimraam a progressive type. There is a lot of upside, coming from a mostly staying lineage, New Zealand bred, races on the speed, and has Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle. One for your trifectas and wider betting options.

The Mick Price trained and High Chapparal bred Hiyaam is another filly considered to be a progressive type. She seems to be doing a lot of things right leading into the Oaks. Fourth in the Wakeful, third in the Ethereal, second in the Edward Manifold, there is a lot to like about her chances. Keep safe. Michael Dee to ride.

The Sydney trained filly Lucky Louie has been racing for just over a year now and is probably the most experienced horse in terms of race day starts. However, the Anthony and Edward Cummings galloper is still a maiden after 9 starts, and it would be hard to pick her in front of all the fillies with better credentials. Indications are that she will struggle in this field.

The Anthony Freedman trained Reliable Dame looks like a smokey in this race. She finished a creditable fourth in the Geelong Classic (won by Weather With You) and that form-line alone, plus her breeding (sire is Reliable Man, also the sire of Sully and Main Stage) could see her attract some interest from punters looking for value. She does get away slowly in her races, so not sure the 4 barrier will provide any benefit. Surely Craig Williams is due a big Group 1 win over the Carnival?

Adelaide visitor Sweet Mischief has been in Melbourne a few weeks now. Finished a creditable third in the Kennedy Oaks Trial at Flemington behind Pinot, but was run off her feet by Cliff’s Edge in the Ladbrokes Classic on Caulfield Cup day. Still a maiden and with Jamie Kah onboard, I’d be interested to see how she goes, with the longer distance sure to test some of these fillies, and the big wide open track sure to be to be her liking. Kah won on Dollar to Dollar at yesterday’s Cup Day meet, so is in good touch.

The Cranbourne trained filly Four Koalas will be one of the outsiders of the race. Not sure she is up to this class. No doubt this is ‘shy at the stumps’ stuff from its connections.

Considering the depth of good three-year-olds in the Bussitin/Young stable, here’s another; the filly Circuleight. Previously trained in Sydney by former jockey Peter Robl, Circuleight changed hands earlier this year, and though racing on the Victorian circuit, has yet to break maiden ranks. I think it would be optimistic for her to break into the top three, but stranger things have happened. Should be a longer odds.

The well-bred filly Miss Admiration is another bound for longer odds. She hasn’t achieved any notable results in her short career thus far (six starts, six unplaced runs), and is not expected to upset any of the favoured runners ahead of her.

Winner
Aloisia $1.65

Triecta
Aloisia, Pinot, Luvaluva

Best Roughie
Reliable Dame $16.00

Best Value
Hiyaam $14.00

Kennedy Oaks – check the odds on William Hill

November 8, 2017 by : • No Comments

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