2017 Caulfield Cup – Preview and Tips

Caulfield Cup, Caulfield Tips 2400m

The middle distance stars line up for the 140th running of the Caulfield Cup this weekend. With a host of Europeans, plus two highly credentialled Kiwis, the race shapes up as a showdown.

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A full field assembles for the 2017 Caulfield Cup. Here’s how they will line up on Saturday:

Caulfield Cup, 2400m, Saturday 21 Oct 2017

1. HUMIDOR (7) 56kg, D Weir, D Lane, $8.00
2. MARMELO (10) 55kg, H Morrison, H Bowman, $18.00
3. JOHANNES VERMEER (2) 54.5kg, A O’Brien, B Melham, $4.20
4. JON SNOW (6) 54.5kg, M Baker & A Forsman, S Baster $12.00
5. HE’S OUR ROKKII (15) 54kg, D & B Hayes & T Dabernig, L Nolen, $126.00
6. SIR ISAAC NEWTON (17) 54kg, R Hickmott, K Mallyon, $61.00
7. VENTURA STORM (4) 54kg, D & B Hayes & T Dabernig, D Oliver, $11.00
8. WICKLOW BRAVE (16) 54kg, W Mullins, J Moreira, $41.00
9. INFERENCE (11) 53.5kg, M, W & J Hawkes, D Dunn, $14.00
10. SINGLE GAZE (12) 53kg, N Olive, K O’Hara $34.00
11. BONNEVAL (14) 52.5kg, M Baker & A Forsman, K McEvoy, $8.00
12. HARDHAM (8) 52.5kg, D Brideoake, C Newitt, $41.00
13. BOOM TIME (3) 52kg, D & B Hayes & T Dabernig, C Parish, $51.00
14. ABBEY MARIE (5) 51.5kg, M Kent, B Mertens (a), $31.00
15. HARLEM (1) 51.5kg, D & B Hayes & T Dabernig, C Schofield, $11.00
16. AMELIE’S STAR (13) 51kg, D Weir, C Williams, $8.50
17. LORD FANDANGO (9) 50kg A Alexander, B Allen (a), $21.00

A few weeks back, Humidor was one of the leading contenders for the race. He slipped off the radar a little bit since running a place behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes and that run didn’t appear to be encouraging. The winner of the Australian Cup earlier this year, he can definitely get over the ground it’s just a matter of what the track conditions will be like come Saturday. If there’s a slight hint of rain he’s in with a chance, but the track is expected to be good/firm, which won’t help. $8.00

Kiwi mare Bonneval was, leading into this race last week, the race favourite. Her run for fifth in last week’s Caulfield Stakes took the shine off her performances to date. She received a few cuts to her legs and pulled up slightly lame, though according to trainer Murray Baker this week, she appears to have come through that ok despite the fact that the Vets are hovering in her vicinity checking on her fitness. Like Humidor, if there is any rain about that would definitely help though the weather in Melbourne this week has been dry and warm, so that’s not likely to happen. A wide barrier draw is also of concern, though the upside is her jockey: Kerrin McEvoy. $8.00

The big improver for the race, and the likely race favourite will be the European horse Johannes Vermeer. A barnstorming run for second behind Gailo Chop in last week’s Caulfield Stakes bought this horse right into contention. There’s a change of rider though, Ben Melham comes in for Katelyn Mallyon. Who instead, is riding Sir Isaac Newton. $4.20

The other leading New Zealand contender is the Murray Baker trained Jon Snow. This horse has been coming along nicely over the last few weeks with a win in the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley, and a third in last week’s Caulfield Stakes. He’s another to appreciate the sting out of the ground and he will be on the speed during the race and one wonders whether or not he can repeat the performance of his former stablemate star Mongolian Khan from two years ago. $12.00

He’s Our Rokkii is an outsider for the race. I think he’s better suited over a mile, and he did win the Toorak Handicap last year but this is a completely different race and an extra 800 metres further. I can’t see him being in the picture to be honest. $126.00

Sir Isaac Newton is an out and out stayer, so should get the distance. My only concern is that he has a wide barrier draw, in fact the widest. He is a horse that races fairly handy, but it would surprise if he ran a place considering he has some very good rivals here. $61.00

Ventura Storm is my best value for the race. His main targets are Caulfield and Melbourne Cups double, but I thought his run behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes was very good actually. He’s another who can stay all day and I think he could be at good money in this race. Respect. $11.00

Irish horse Wicklow Brave is a return visitor to Australia, after coming out here last year for the Melbourne Cup. It’s hard to frame any form guide around him, because he hasn’t started in a race this preparation, so punters will be going in a little bit blind. There’s not much more I can say about his prospects, so take on trust, and the fact that Joao Moreira gets the ride. $41.00

I would also say the same about another European galloper Marmelo. The only gauge we can get from him is trackwork undertaken at Werribee, though to be honest trackwork is not a very good guide for races like this. Another proven stayer, and with Hugh Bowman in the saddle Marmelo is not without a chance. Keep safe. $18.00

Sydney horse Inference is starting to come into some sort of form. The winner of the three-year-old Randwick Guineas last season, he found the line well in the Caulfield Stakes the other day, and that will provide the Hawkes team with some confidence. He could be at long odds come Saturday, so might be worth throwing him into your wider selections. $14.00

Canberra visitor Single Gaze with regular jockey Kathy O’Hara aboard is another horse that seems to be racing in the higher echelon of group races. Despite his consistent appearances, I’m not quite sure that he’s up to the quality of this field, and it would come as a huge surprise if he ran a place. $34.00

The surprise winner of the Herbert Power Stakes last weekend was Lord Fandango, who came in at a good price. It was a really good win, the pace was pretty quick and a few of the leading contenders were run off their feet, including the Hickmott pairing of Aloft and Foundry. He is an excellent lightweight chance, and it would be hard to ignore him in your Trifecta pics, even in a top-tier race like the Caulfield Cup. My roughie of the day. $21.00

Last week I profiled Abbey Marie in the Caulfield Stakes preview. Her run was ok, and considering the race was run at speed and also there was a little bit of interference, we can probably run the rule through that race. However, she’d need to be on the pace to be a chance though. $31.00

With the scratching of top Japanese galloper Admire Deus earlier in the week, trainer Darren Weir and the connections of Amelie’s Star have opted to go with Craig Williams instead of Michael Dee. Williams will be in the sauna this week to bring his weight down to 51.5 kgs. She won the Bart Cummings a few weeks back, which earned her an automatic entry into the Melbourne Cup. She can stay, and that is her upside. $8.50

Harlem is another of the Hayes/Dabernig stable, and with a lightweight and Hong Kong based Chad Schoefield aboard, shouldn’t be discounted. He’s got the inside alley, and if he can be among the leading group, he has what it takes to pull out a shock win. I’d be inclined to throw some sneaky money on him, especially for those of you with short memories who remember Schoefield and his daring deeds with Shamus Award back in 2013/2014. $11.00

==

Winner
Bonneval $8.00

Trifecta
Bonneval, Johannes Vermeer, Jon Snow

Best Roughie
Lord Fandango $21.00

Best Value
Ventura Storm $11.00

Caulfield Cup – check the odds on William Hill

October 19, 2017 by : • 3 Comments

3 Responses to “2017 Caulfield Cup – Preview and Tips”

  1. Well, there’s been a bit of rain about in Melbourne today (Thursday). Whether that makes a difference to the track conditions remains to be seen. Let’s see what Friday brings.

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  2. Do you still think Bonneval if the track conditions are poor?

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  3. An even better chance if the track is poor. If her win in the ATC Oaks (on a heavy 9) was anything to go by. I don’t think the track will be an issue, Caulfield and Flemington drain quite well. The issue for me will be race tactics.

    I can see Sir Isaac Newton coming across from his wide draw to be close to the lead before they get to the first turn.

    I also listened to Kerrin McEvoy on SEN Radio (1116 AM) last night. He suggests having Bonneval closer to the speed, rather than getting too far back like she is prone to do.

    After last week’s races on Guineas Day, very few back-markers and swoopers made an impression, other than Tosen Stardom in the Toorak, and I suspect it may be more of the same on Cup Day.

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