2017 AAMI Victoria Derby – Preview and Tips

AAMI Victoria Derby, Flemington Tips 2500m

It looks like being a clash between some of Sydney’s top-line three-year-olds, versus the local competition from Melbourne. Just how will the 2017 AAMI Victoria Derby pan out this Saturday?

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It is the feature race on the first day of the Flemington spring carnival. The AAMI Victoria Derby is the classic staying distance event for 3-year-olds held early in their season. Run over 2500m, it is the true staying test, and many great horses have won this event over the years. Here are the entrants for this year’s edition:

1 ACE HIGH (3), D Payne, T Angland, 55.5kg, $4.60
2 TANGLED (11), C Waller, B Shinn, 55.5kg, $6.50
3 ASTORIA (1), J Cummings, D Lane, 55.5kg, $9.50
4 ESHTIRAAK (5), D & B Hayes & T Dabernig, K McEvoy, 55.5kg, $15.00
5 MAIN STAGE (14), T Busuttin & N Young, M Walker, 55.5kg, $7.00
6 SULLY (15), T Busuttin & N Young, H Bowman, 55.5kg, $8.00
7 WEATHER WITH YOU (2), My Baker & A Forsman, M Zahra, 55.5kg, $7.00
8 ABERRO (13), M Laurie, B Melham, 55.5kg, $34.00
9 PISSARO (10), R Laing, N Callow, 55.5kg, $34.00
10 JUSTICE FAITH (16), D & B Hayes & T Dabernig, C Williams, 55.5kg, $41.00
11 OCEAN’S FOURTEEN (7), A Purcell, L Nolen, 55.5kg, $14.00
12 GREYCLIFFE (9), M Cumani, J Childs, 55.5kg, $10.00
13 JOHNNY VINKO (4), T Busuttin & N Young, S Baster, 55.5kg, $31.00
14 NOTHING TOO HARD (12), P Perry, B Mertens (a), 55.5kg, $101.00
15 ROCKARRAL (8), T McEvoy, J Allen, 55.5kg, $67.00
16 WOLFE TONE (17) F Finnegan, TBA, 55.5kg, $101.00
17e BEACHWOOD (6), T Busuttin & N Young, TBA, 55.5kg, $91.00


For this year’s race, there appears to be three predominant themes which stand out. They are:

  1. The number of Sydney horses who have won this race in recent times
  2. The number of New Zealand bred, owned or trained horses who have had success in recent times
  3. The Hugh Bowman effect.

Which leads directly into some of the runners lining up in this race. Also, it would appear that the form-line to follow would be the Spring Champion Stakes.

Of the Sydney brigade, we have three runners at the top of the order who all appear to have legitimate claims for this race. They are: Ace High, Astoria and Tangled. Ace High was the winner of the Spring Champion Stakes up in Sydney. Astoria is the Godolphin runner trained by James Cummings, who is looking for a successive victory in this race following Prized Icon’s win in last year’s race. Tangled was my pick for the Spring Champion Stakes, but was beaten by the better galloper on the day, but is definitely worth another look.

On the other hand, we have three runners from the Trent Bussitin and Natalie Young stable based out at Cranbourne. They too should make their presence felt during the race. Main Stage should be one of the favourites, after a handful of excellent runs, including one impressive win at Flemington earlier in his prep. He’s followed by Sully ridden by Hugh Bowman, who was the third placegetter in the Spring Champion Stakes, plus the lesser fancied Johnny Vinko. Bussitin has won the race before with Sangster, so he knows what it takes to get his charges over the line.

Let’s not forget the Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman trained Weather With You, who won the Geelong Classic last week. He’s coming into form just at the right time, and knowing this stable they can produce winners from a very small team of quality gallopers. Especially three-year-olds (think: Turn Me Loose, Mongolian Khan, Jon Snow, Bonneval).

Kiwi horses have done well in the past decade, with Efficient, Monaco Consul, Sangster and Liontamer all winning, with Sacred Elixir finishing second last year.

Hugh Bowman has regularly won this race, being onboard Polanski, Liontamer and Sangster. Can he add to his tally?

I would go out on a limb and say that the winner will come from one of those horses mentioned above. Some in the media are saying that this is not a particularly strong field, I think I’ve seen weaker fields in the past and I’m also thinking that whoever wins this will go on to bigger and better things.

Winner
Main Stage $7.00

Trifecta
Main Stage, Ace High, Weather With You

Best Roughie
Ocean’s Fourteen $14.00

AAMI Victoria Derby – check the odds on William Hill

November 2, 2017 by : • No Comments

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